小酌一下，预言蒂有木有
本帖最后由 pedro 于 2012-6-29 05:29 编辑对于德国队前景，偶在6月20日就有一个谨慎看法，见下：
90德国队真正考验是英国队和阿根廷队，取胜优势不明显，但是呼声和结果一致，那是典型的德国战车，碾碎南斯拉夫和板鸭没商量，搞掉拥有三剑客的橙色军团也是略施小技。
96欧洲杯上德国队，是在94那支严重走下坡路的日耳曼军团总体不可逆转的下降趋势中略有回升，决战捷克前夕以及决赛中捷克人领先1球时，还是哀兵之师，谈不上史上强队。
而98世界杯上这支还残余有90遗风的德国队被克罗地亚打惨了，那么金色轰炸机克林斯曼退出，标志90那支德国队彻底退出德国国家队历史舞台
之后就是德国队重建期，02意外获得世界杯亚军，但其实力或朝气还不如06的德国队，08和10年还在进步，但是目前说其将超越历史为时尚早。
这支德国队在打法上和风格上与90之师明显不同。90之师明显是大兵团式的作战风格，就是正面开火来打垮你，对技术流派的南斯拉夫和西班牙，仅用各种凶狠精准的飞铲就打残这些脚风偏软、但不乏才华横溢球星的队伍，他们的最经典之战就是德英大战。
现在这支德国队经过小组赛三战，似乎显现出收放自如的端倪，尤其中场配置和发挥上。但是96之后的历届德国队，还是缺乏传统德国队的一些经典东西，例如96哀兵之师德国队，在那届欧洲杯上落后时总有不同角色球员站出来挽救球队。最近几届的德国队，在02巴德大战、在06德意大战、在08和10德西大战中，均木有起死回生的基因重现。
所以，到目前为止，这支不断前进的德国队，还需要苦主意大利队来检验，抑或需要宿敌英格兰来检验，当然更需要08和10两次大赛淘汰其的西班牙来检验的，如果德西再次会师决赛的话。
而对于德意大战，偶在26日发言时就期望意大利爆冷战胜，约有30%可能性，见下
偶看好西班牙晋级
不过对于德国和意大利，偶期望能爆冷，虽然可能性小于40%
也就说，德意大战歧异性较大些
肿么样，不算败rp吧
预言蒂有木有，斑竹们可不可以再次加分呢？
加精有木有？
呵呵，乐一乐 本帖最后由 pedro 于 2012-6-29 07:43 编辑
6月26日对两场半决赛结果的预测发言，原出处见这个帖子
http://bbs.argstorm.com/viewthread.php?tid=262599&extra=page%3D1&page=66
984楼 6月20日对大热门德国队夺冠前景的长篇发言，原出处亦见这个帖子
http://bbs.argstorm.com/viewthread.php?tid=262599&extra=page%3D1&page=40
586楼
马拉多纳：德国有弱点意大利能赢 巴洛特利该爆发了
2012年06月28日17:43新浪体育微博
新浪体育讯 北京时间明天凌晨，欧洲杯第二场半决赛将在德国队(微博)和意大利队之间打响。阿根廷传奇球星马拉多纳认为意大利可以击败德国杀入决赛。
四分之一决赛中，德国队(微博)比较轻松的4比2击败希腊队晋级。不过马拉多纳认为，与超强的攻击力相比，两个失球更暴露了德国队(微博)在防守方面的问题。
马拉多纳说：“德国队(微博)就像一部战车，他们的攻击力很强，但这部战车是有弱点的，那就是他们的防守。勒夫是一个喜欢进攻的教练，德国队(微博)的进攻快速犀利，队员之间的配合也很默契。但防守上有可以利用的失误，与希腊队的两个失球就是证明。”
“与希腊队的比赛中，萨尔平吉迪斯通过速度突破了德国人的防线，博阿滕、巴德斯图贝尔和拉姆被一下子穿越了，诺伊尔防守反击时也没有办法。如果希腊队能在德国队(微博)身上取得进球，那么意大利也同样可以。”马拉多纳说。
马拉多纳还表示，巴洛特利将是意大利取胜的关键。马拉多纳说：“巴洛特利和卡萨诺分别只进了一个球，面对英格兰队他们有过很多机会，但都没有进球。今晚是他们证明自己的最好机会。意大利队要严密防守，反击中期待巴洛特利的爆发。”
(新体)
不过，老马支持c罗，却让人大迭眼镜的 白岩松在赛前闲侃时，提到了“为什么又是我”
也说到德国队将是1-0艰难取胜，如果意大利取胜，那将是不正常的
今天凌晨，超级马里奥是意大利的巴洛特利，而不是戈麦斯 本帖最后由 北极狐 于 2012-6-29 06:01 编辑
Mario hails 'greatest night'
Italy striker overjoyed after heroics seal final spot
Last Updated: June 28, 2012 10:56pm
http://e1.365dm.com/12/06/660x350/BALOTELLI_2787281.jpg
Mario Balotelli: Branded Italy's win 'the greatest night of my life'
Mario Balotelli branded Italy's 2-1 Euro 2012 semi-final victory over Germany 'the greatest night of my life' but is hoping to top it in the decider against Spain.
The Manchester City frontman enjoyed an impressive evening in Warsaw, firing two first-half goals past the Germans to inspire a 2-1 Azzurri win.
Cesare Prandelli's men will now go up against defending champions Spain in Sunday's final in Kiev and Balotelli is keen to make that night even more memorable.
The delighted striker said after Thursday's triumph: "This is the greatest night of my life but I hope Sunday is going to be even better."
LuckWhile Balotelli scored against Republic of Ireland in the group stage, the striker was criticized for wasting numerous chances against Spain, Croatia and England.
The young Italian admits luck was not on his side in earlier games, adding: "In the opening matches I had a lot of chances, and I wasn't able to finish them. But In football you also need luck."
Italy midfielder Claudio Marchisio believes his side have proved they have nothing to fear ahead of Sunday's decider.
"We showed we're on Spain's level and that's where we started this run," he said.
"It's no longer a question of fear. Now we've got to pull out everything we still have inside ourselves."
[*]Euro 2012 Winner Win Outright: Italy 6/4 ws预测种，曾经提到有家博彩给出：意大利打平或者取胜，赔率1.80，好于德国队
而ws预测结果却是德国队2-0意大利，基本上方向和比分都是反的
http://www.whoscored.com/Matches/619068/Preview/International-EURO-Cup-2012-Germany-Italy 普兰德利才是用人不疑的典范 Lahm laments Germany loss
Germany head coach says his side must do better in the future
Last Updated: June 28, 2012 10:41pm
http://e2.365dm.com/12/05/660x350/Joachim-Low-Philipp-Lahm_2773192.jpg
Joachim Low and Philipp Lahm: Disappointment after semi-final exit
Captain Philipp Lahm admitted Germany felt 'very bitter' following their shock 2-1 defeat at the hands of Italy in the semi-final of Euro 2012.
Mario Balotelli struck twice to secure a famous win for the Azzurri to leave the Germans' hopes of a fourth European Championship crown in tatters.
A late penalty from Mesut Ozil proved no more than a consolation goal for Joachim Low's inexperienced team, whose 16-year wait for a major title continues.
The full-back said: "It's very, very bitter. We made mistakes that led to those two goals. We worked hard in the first half and we had chances but you can't give up goals like that."
"Every defeat is bitter, especially after getting so far in the tournament. The most bitter part is that this team has so much potential for more than this, but we weren't clever enough."
HeartMeanwhile, head coach Joachim Low felt huge disappointment after defeat at the National Stadium in Warsaw, but felt his side must now bounce back.
"We had two goals against us in the first half and it was difficult. The team showed a lot of heart after that," he said.
"We had our chances in the second half, if we had got the goal sooner it would have been a different match.
"It's very difficult against a team like Italy to fall behind 2-0. They defend with everything they have.
"The disappointment is huge for everyone but we shouldn't make the mistake and question everything. We've got to see how we can do better in the future."
[*]Spain v Italy. Click here to bet. 转个贴
巴神带着他那两粒价值连城的进球被替换下场，地球人要膜拜的赶紧排队。。。
而对巴神来说，这场比赛也能算他职业生涯到现在最经典的一场比赛吧，他在国际大赛里成为了绝对的主角，绝对的英雄，整个国家的骄傲与光荣。
之前曼城德比why always me很简单，但那场巴神的表现并不如这场抢眼，还有席尔瓦等人抢戏，而这一次，巴神是唯一的主角，这将是他职业生涯目前为止最伟大的一场比赛？
http://ww4.sinaimg.cn/large/653d411egw1duehaybkyog.gif
http://ww3.sinaimg.cn/large/653d411egw1duehubuvurg.gif 巴神也是3球在握，而且3球都是价值连城
两场淘汰赛
第一场对阵英国队，苦战至点球大战，面对俱乐部队友乔哈特，巴神毫无心理负担，第一个罚进点球，牛！
第二场对阵德国队，赛季曼城德比的why always me的巴神再次成为救世主，上半场就梅开二度，奠定胜局基础
他极有可能成为最终的本届欧洲杯金靴 本帖最后由 乔治六世 于 2012-6-29 06:26 编辑
Balotelli sends Italy past Germany
Published: Thursday 28 June 2012, 22.50CET
Germany 1-2 Italy
Mario Balotelli struck twice as Italy once again proved Germany's nemesis, Cesare Prandelli's side holding on in Warsaw to set up a final against Spain.
by Sam Adams
from National Stadium Warsaw
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Photo/competitions/Comp_Matches/01/83/59/51/1835951_w2.jpg
Italy once again proved to be Germany's nemesis after Mario Balotelli struck two first-half goals to set up a UEFA EURO 2012 final against Spain on Sunday.
Joachim Löw's side came into the semi-final full of confidence having swept all before them in Poland and Ukraine, but perhaps lingering at the back of their minds was the fact that Germany had never beaten the Azzurri in seven competitive meetings. That tally is now eight after Italy produced a wonderfully measured performance with Balotelli at its heart.
Cesare Prandelli's side neutralised Germany's dynamic approach, and found their No9 in clinical form. The striker headed his side in front midway through the opening period and doubled the advantage nine minutes before half-time. Germany threw everything at their opponents after the restart, but their breakthrough came too late, Mesut Özil converting an added-time penalty that only offered fleeting hope.
Prandelli has described his side as a work in progress but, after surviving a nervous opening, they were soon looking like the finished article. In the early stages, only Andrea Pirlo's torso stopped Mats Hummels giving Germany the lead, and then Andrea Barzagli watched helplessly as Gianluigi Buffon's parry ricocheted off him and just past the post. Italy soon found their stride, though.
The busy Riccardo Montolivo forced Manuel Neuer to stretch, before Antonio Cassano had the goalkeeper going the other way. Özil and Toni Kroos, on his first start of the tournament, tested Buffon again, but the Azzurri were looking the more dangerous side. In the 20th minute, they made it count. Pirlo, ever the instigator, swung the ball out to left-back Giorgio Chiellini who fed Cassano. The No10 tricked Hummels and delivered an inviting cross. With the door was wide open Balotelli merely needed to put his head on it as it flashed past Neuer. It was Italy's first UEFA European Championship semi-final goal on their fourth appearance.
Germany reacted as expected for a team who had won a world-record 15 straight competitive games. Özil made Buffon work, and Federico Balzaretti just cleared Jérôme Boateng's dangerous centre. Prandelli has urged his team to resist sitting on a lead on all tournament, and the second duly came – although it was a classic Azzurri counterattack.
Buffon had just made a flying save from Sami Khedira, and batted away the resulting corner which Montolivo picked up. The new AC Milan recruit looked for Balotelli straight away, his ball over the top evading Philipp Lahm, and the striker sped away to rifle a shot into the top corner for a finish every bit as emphatic as his first.
Löw had proved in his starting XI he was not scared to tinker with his personnel, and made changes at half-time, Marco Reus and Miroslav Klose coming on. Reus's first involvement was a effort on goal and then Lahm could only lift his shot over when well placed. Özil got to the byline, but Khedira got in a tangle.
Buffon's fingertips just did enough to send a Reus free-kick on to the bar and away to safety, yet Balotelli was still a menace at the other end and Claudio Marchisio nearly made it three on two occasions. As German belief ebbed away, Antonio Di Natale had a clean run on goal only to fire wide.
Balzaretti handled in his own area with time running out and Özil finally beat Buffon, but it merely offered forlorn hope. Löw's side may have been the tournament's great entertainers, but it is Italy who are in Sunday's final after once again being Germany's bogey team.
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[*]Tardelli tweets back[*]Paolo Rossi responds[*]The coin toss semi-final[*]Experts took questions[*]Breitner answers tweets[*]Spain squeeze past Portugal[*]Ronaldo proud in defeat[*]Fàbregas's premonition[*]Del Bosque: Fàbregas wanted it
©UEFA.com 1998-2012. All rights reserved.
Last updated: 29/06/12 0.24CET 偶是来膜拜普兰德利的 我早预言了。 Today at EURO: 28 June
Published: Friday 29 June 2012
In today's magazine we look back on the semi-final between Germany and Italy, hear from Spain's Vicente del Bosque and bring you news about Netherlands trainer Bert van Marwijk
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Photo/competitions/Comp_Matches/01/83/60/41/1836041_w2.jpg 我早预言了。
铁帅 发表于 2012-6-29 06:35 http://bbs.argstorm.com/images/common/back.gif
哈哈，也是预言蒂 本帖最后由 thewall 于 2012-6-29 06:46 编辑
Prandelli seduced by Italy's brave new approach
Published: Friday 29 June 2012, 0.16CET
Cesare Prandelli said Italy are in the UEFA EURO 2012 final because they "played football from the start" against a Germany team for whom Joachim Löw still has grand plans.
by Sam Adams
from National Stadium Warsaw
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Photo/competitions/Comp_Matches/01/83/59/62/1835962_w2.jpg
Cesare Prandelli congratulated his Italy team after they "bought into" his attacking concept and set up a UEFA EURO 2012 final against Spain with victory against Germany in Warsaw. He reserved special praise for Mario Balotelli, scorer of both Azzurri goals, while Joachim Löw was proud of how his team played in the tournament but admitted Germany gave their semi-final opponents too much of a head start in the first half.
Joachim Löw, Germany coach
We lost our organisation after the first, avoidable, goal and then the second came. We made mistakes and paid the price. In the second half our team showed real heart and tried everything but could not get the goal.
If I look back on the team selection it's easy to say I could have changed something. Mario Gomez scored three goals and has done well in training. I wanted Toni Kroos in the team so he could get among the Italy midfielders. When we conceded the first we couldn't get back into the game for a little while. I had to make some substitutions, I had to risk everything and try something.
We've had two great years, the team has developed very well, winning 15 games in a row. We lost today against a very strong Italy team who have a great spine and two quick strikers. They were just a bit better – you have to acknowledge that and they were more clinical than us. Cesare Prandelli has changed this team around; they have more of an offensive philosophy. I expected Italy to play like this; if they take the lead it is very difficult, but we should have got it back to 2-1 earlier.
We still played a great tournament and we have really moved forward. We won four games and lost one. This team has given us a lot of joy, against Portugal, the Netherlands, so we have to give them a real compliment. We have caught up with other nations and at the top of the game – there will be more chances in the future.
Cesare Prandelli, Italy coach
We prepared very well for this game. Of course you need to actually get things right on the day. We knew they were very good on the flanks – we wanted to keep the ball and knock it about in midfield. We took a bit of a risk but got Antonio Cassano on the ball in one-on-ones and that allowed Mario Balotelli to get into space high up the pitch.
Balotelli was excellent just like the entire team were. I really need a team to have an idea, and Balotelli subscribed to this. He was always available, ran high up the pitch and did very well. He was in the game, he was very focused, concentrated and did exactly what I asked of him. I took him off because I saw he was struggling and didn't want to risk him.
I am very proud of these players – I don't want it all to be about me. Germany are a good side, but we have a good idea about how to play the game. We've always tried to play football right from the outset – the players have really bought into what we're trying to do. We tried to play football right from the start against Germany. I always wanted to focus on this style as we have a lot of quality.
We have no time to celebrate, just concentrate on the next game which is the biggest. When you dream, you only dream big – so this is the beginning. Spain are a terrific side, but we will prepare very well like we did tonight. I think it will be an open game and we'll start on a level footing in that respect.
©UEFA.com 1998-2012. All rights reserved.
Last updated: 29/06/12 0.49CET 阿根廷最需要的是普兰德利式教头，具有艺术家气质，似乎又很低调
但是创新性和勇气可嘉，智慧比之补锅匠以及银狐里皮更强，把并不看好的一副牌从一开始就捣弄得有声有色
例如刚上任不久的一场热身赛，就战胜过双料卫冕冠军板鸭队，这次小组赛首场还是那么不落下风 贴吧这个预测也不错，方向和比分都对了，只是细节有出入，说呆梨会偷两个球
http://tieba.baidu.com/p/1683565812?pn=1 莫不是今年欧洲杯两大看点就是
460 pk 352 ？
http://bbs.argstorm.com/viewthread.php?tid=264287&extra=page%3D1 我早预言了。
铁帅 发表于 2012-6-29 06:35 http://bbs.argstorm.com/images/common/back.gif
你一直不看好板鸭吧;P
偶则预测过进入决赛的两队，还是更全面些:lol
尽管欧不喜欢呆梨队{:3_239:} 我早预言了。
铁帅 发表于 2012-6-29 06:35 http://bbs.argstorm.com/images/common/back.gif
大家都差不多预言了，我也说过德国组织很好，还是缺乏顶级球员，成绩稳定，难达最高境界。
当然人家无论如何都比这些年阿根廷的乱象好。 现在板鸭和意大利基本扯平了
90-120分钟内，板鸭5战2平3胜，而淘汰赛为1胜1平，淘汰总比分为2-0
90-120分钟内，呆梨5战3平2胜，而淘汰赛为1平1胜，淘汰总比分为2-1 决赛
是“意”往情深
还是心有灵西呢？ 本帖最后由 pedro 于 2012-6-29 13:25 编辑
是
“意”往无前呢？
还是忆往“西”，峥嵘岁月稠呢？
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